Tensions in the Middle East influence energy prices

In the second quarter of 2024, the global economy showed some resilience, supported by the expansion of international trade. In Madagascar, however, growth rates remain uneven, and inflation continues to rise despite the strengthening of the ariary.

Inflation in Madagascar continues to climb and remains high. According to the latest BFM report on the economic situation, consumer prices increased by 7.2 % between June 2023 and June 2024. Although slightly lower than in March (7.4 %) and April/May (7.3 %), this rate remains high and shows consistent stability since the beginning of the year, with only minimal fluctuations.

Among the main components of the household consumption basket, the price of rice increased by 5.0 %, contributing to 13.1 % of the overall variation. During the pre-pandemic period, rice prices typically dropped significantly after each harvest.

Energy costs have not been spared from inflation, with a significant increase of 8.0% over the same period. However, fuel prices have remained stable since July 2022, despite the global rise in energy costs. According to BFM, tensions in the Middle East have started to impact energy prices, leading to an increase in petroleum product prices.

BFM estimates an annual inflation rate of 8.0 % by the end of the period for the overall basket of goods and 7.8 % for core inflation.