The Impact of Drought and Food Insecurity

An analysis conducted in four districts of the Grand Sud and two areas of Menabe highlights the mechanisms behind the massive migration of populations, linked to food insecurity and resource shortages. The study emphasizes the urgency of integrated solutions to break the cycle of repetitive displacement.

Faced with persistent drought and failed crops, thousands of Malagasy leave the Grand Sud, an arid region, each year to reach Menabe, an agricultural area in the southwest. A joint survey by the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), the International Organization for Migration (IOM), and the National Office for Risk and Disaster Management (BNGRC) was deployed in the districts of Antanimora Atsimo, Ambovombe Androy, Tsihombe, and Ampanihy Ouest (South), as well as in Morondava and Belo-sur-Tsiribihina (Menabe). The results reveal alarming dynamics.

The underlying causes are multiple: water scarcity, soil degradation, and the collapse of agricultural livelihoods. « The populations no longer have a choice: migrating becomes a matter of survival », emphasizes Roger Evina, IOM’s head. While host areas were initially seen as refuges, they are now under unbearable pressure, leading to land conflicts, overuse of groundwater, and increasing social tensions.

In this context, a two-pronged approach is recommended. On one hand, it is crucial to strengthen resilience in the Grand Sud through sustainable irrigation systems and adapted crops. On the other, planning for hosting in Menabe is necessary to avoid the « time bomb » effect. In Belo-sur-Tsiribihina, for instance, the influx of migrants has accelerated deforestation, threatening local agricultural productivity and compromising future prospects for host populations.

The Solutions and Mobility Index (ISM), at the heart of this analysis, maps out the socio-economic « breaking points », thus providing a lever to act before displacements become inevitable. « These indicators help target interventions before the displacements become unavoidable », explains Karim Ali Alimed, UNDP expert. Among the proposed solutions are conditional social safety nets in the South and inter-community agreements in Menabe to ensure shared management of water access.

Today, January 28, during the presentation of the results, institutions reiterated the importance of involving local authorities at every stage of the process. « Without the involvement of municipalities, projects remain empty shells », warned the Director General of the BNGRC. This challenge is even more critical in a country where less than 15 % of municipalities have climate adaptation plans, highlighting the urgent need to strengthen local capacities to address these development and migration challenges.