Strengthening the country’s resilience to shocks
According to a survey conducted by Banky Foiben’i Madagasikara and recent forecasts from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the African Development Bank (AfDB), the estimated inflation rate in Madagascar for 2025 is projected to be 7.3 %, indicating a gradual economic stabilization.
The IMF’s estimate for 2025 predicts a gradual decrease in the annual inflation rate, projected at 7.3 %, following an anticipated drop to 7.2 % in 2024. This progression would be supported by an expected economic growth of 4.6 % for 2025, along with control of the current account deficit, which is expected to remain below 5 % of GDP.
The AfDB shares this confidence, forecasting an economic growth of 5.3 % for 2025. The mining sector, the revival of tourism, and increased public investments are expected to drive this expansion. According to the AfDB, these factors combined with a tight monetary policy should reduce inflation to 8.1 % in 2024 and then to 7.3 % in 2025.
Regarding financial institutions in Madagascar, 93.4 % of them believe that inflation for the first quarter of 2025 will likely remain between 7 % and 10 %. Global forecasts indicate that Madagascar could manage to keep inflation near 7 % in the short term, then aim for stabilization around 6 % in the medium term. To maintain this favorable trend, a conducive economic environment is necessary, along with the continued implementation of structural reforms to strengthen the country’s resilience to shocks.
