Review of the first quarter of 2024

This year, the Central Bank (BFM) released its first assessment of the evolution of the country’s main economic and financial indicators.

The significance of this assessment lies in the fact that it covers the first quarter, a period when the country had just emerged from the presidential election, with political uncertainty still looming. It was published a few months after the presentation of the 2025 Finance Bill and could serve as an inspiration for its authors. For instance, some key indicators to consider include net purchases of 90.5 million USD on the interbank foreign exchange market (MID).

During this period, the ariary experienced a nominal increase of 6.2 % against the euro and 4.8 % against the US dollar. There was a decrease in official foreign exchange reserves by 36.7 million USD, mainly due to significant external contributions by the State. By the end of March 2024, official foreign exchange reserves amounted to 2,576.3 million USD, representing a coverage of 5.7 months for imports of goods and services.

The BFM made the following observations regarding the real sector: a seasonal decline in the activities of legal enterprises in the first quarter of 2024. Despite strong performances by large companies, the Synthetic Indicator of Business Activities (IAE) stood at -6.3 %. Since the beginning of 2024, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) has increased by 3.3 %. On an annual basis, the CPI rose by 7.3 % at the end of March 2024, a rate significantly lower than the peak of 12.4 % recorded in March 2023.