Oil prices have been falling sharply since the beginning of April 2025, reflecting a market rebalancing between excess supply and sluggish demand. Brent, the European benchmark, fell to 65 USD per barrel in mid-April, compared to nearly 82 USD a year earlier. This trend intensified at the end of April, with Brent futures contracts falling to 66 USD on April 21, down 2.7% on the day.
Sluggish global demand
The International Energy Agency (IEA) has revised its demand growth forecast for 2025 downwards to 730,000 barrels/day, 300,000 barrels less than previous estimates. The economic slowdown in China, Sino-US trade tensions, and the rise of electric vehicles are weighing on consumption. OPEC has also adjusted its projections to 1.3 million barrels/day, down 100,000 barrels.
Supply boosted by non-OPEC+ producers
Global production reaches 103.6 million barrels/day in March 2025, driven by non-OPEC+ countries such as the United States, despite a downward revision of their forecast growth to 490,000 b/d for 2025. OPEC+ announced a quota increase of 411,000 b/d starting in May. However, several members (Kazakhstan, the Emirates, Iraq) are already exceeding their official limits, exacerbating the surplus.
Financial institutions are revising their scenarios downward
Goldman Sachs forecasts Brent at 63 USD in 2025, suggesting a worst-case scenario below USD 40 in the event of OPEC+ withdrawal. JP Morgan forecasts 66 USD for 2025, Commerzbank 65 USD, and Fitch Ratings 65 USD for Brent.
The more optimistic Bloomberg consensus maintains a broad range of 58 to 78 USD, reflecting market uncertainty.
Aggravating Factors: Political and Trade Tensions
The Trump administration’s announcements of additional tariffs, although excluding oil, have fueled fears of a global trade war. At the same time, US crude oil inventories are reaching historically low levels, while European reserves of refined products are increasing, without enough to stabilize prices.
Uncertain perspectives for 2025-2026
Analysts expect a structural surplus through 2026, despite persistent geopolitical risks in the Middle East. The combination of fragile demand and overabundant supply could keep prices under pressure, calling into question the strategies of producing countries dependent on oil revenues.
