According to the IMF’s projections, global economic growth will largely be driven by BRICS economies over the next five years. The ten BRICS nations now make up more than a quarter of the global economy and nearly half the world’s population. China is expected to contribute significantly, accounting for 22 % of global growth over this period, surpassing the combined share of all G7 countries.
BRICS : Coalition of Emerging Economies
The BRICS countries – Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa, now with five additional members – form an informal coalition of emerging economies aiming to boost their influence on the global stage. Over the last two decades, the BRICS group has become a major political force, underpinned by its intent to counterbalance Western influence in international institutions.
With the expansion of BRICS in 2024 comes a wave of geopolitical implications, positioning the bloc as a growing economic and demographic force, with its members representing over a quarter of the global economy and nearly half of the world’s population.
BRICS’ influence on global economic growth
According to the latest IMF forecasts, the global economy is expected to rely more on the BRICS emerging economies for growth than on their richer Western counterparts. The BRICS’ projected influence on global economic growth over the next five years is driven by:
- Their combined economic growth
- Their growing share of global GDP
- Their rising political influence as a counterweight to Western dominance
Compared to early-year forecasts, the IMF now expects a substantial portion of global economic growth to come from BRICS economies over the next five years, including Brazil, Russia, India, and China.
These projections rely heavily on purchasing power parity (PPP), which adjusts for price levels and tends to give more weight to less wealthy but more populous nations over wealthier ones.
China as a catalyst for economic growth
China is set to play a significant role in global growth, contributing 22 % over the next five years surpassing the combined growth share of the G7. India is anticipated to be the other major driver, contributing nearly 15 % to the global economy by 2029.
Emerging markets’ growing significance is further supported by contributions from other countries, such as Egypt, which is expected to account for 1.7 percentage points of global growth, similar to Japan and Germany. Vietnam’s contribution is projected at 1.4 percentage points, equal to that of the UK and France.
The strong economic expansion in the U.S. over the past 25 years has made it the top growth contributor among developed countries. However, the U.S. has struggled to maintain its global growth share in PPP terms compared to more populous nations like China and India.
The G7’s smaller economies, such as Italy and Canada, are each expected to contribute less than 1 % to global GDP growth over the next five years lower than emerging countries like the Philippines, Egypt, and Bangladesh.
Major challenges for BRICS
The expanded BRICS membership also brings fresh challenges, including heightened opposition from Western nations and potential internal divides. Economic and political instability among BRICS members has shaken confidence in the bloc’s long-term efforts.
Over the past decade, Brazil and South Africa have faced prolonged economic crises, deteriorating infrastructure, and endemic corruption. China’s economic slowdown could also threaten the group’s growth trajectory. Other notable fault lines include tensions between democracies and autocracies and historic rivalries, such as those among Saudi Arabia, Iran, Egypt, and Ethiopia.
Experts believe that how BRICS members manage these tensions will ultimately determine the group’s potential impact on global economic growth.
