It is unlikely that the 2024 U.S. elections will fundamentally alter American policy towards Africa. Washington will continue to focus on balancing economic interests. Both Democrats and Republicans recognize Africa’s strategic importance in a shifting geopolitical landscape. However, the parties’ differing approaches could influence how American policy is perceived by African and European partners.
U.S. policy priorities concerning Africa
Africa : Key Geopolitical actor for the U.S.
While both Democrats and Republicans share a bipartisan commitment to promoting U.S. geopolitical interests on the continent, their perspectives on competition with China and Russia may differ. The Biden administration has continued Trump’s approach toward China but has yet to articulate a comprehensive strategy. While Trump openly framed U.S. engagement in Africa as a rivalry with China, Biden avoids direct competition.
The implications of the next election for the U.S. approach to Russia will also significantly impact U.S. policy in Africa. Notably, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has already spread to West Africa.
Strengthening economic relations
This will require ongoing efforts to strengthen trade ties between the U.S. and Africa, notably by expanding initiatives like the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA), which stimulates trade and investment. The Trump administration launched Prosper Africa, which President Biden has renewed, allocating an additional 80 million USD to invest in infrastructure, clean energy, and healthcare.
The program highlights the economic benefits of transparent markets and business practices, contrasting them with approaches supported by China and Russia. Initially focused on countering these international competitors, the initiative has also paved the way for mutually beneficial partnerships in Africa.
The African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), officially launched in 2019 to promote economic integration, is another promising initiative. This zone provides a conducive environment for investing in African infrastructure and encourages U.S. companies to pursue public-private partnerships.
Protecting American interests
In unstable regions like the Sahel and the Horn of Africa, the U.S. must balance support for international norms with security interests. The instability in the Sahel, marked by growing insurgent violence and frequent coups, reveals a lack of strategic clarity in U.S. policy in Africa. Since 2021, the Biden administration has been working to shift U.S. engagement from Trump’s transactional approach to one emphasizing democratic values.
However, these tangible changes in U.S. diplomatic priorities have been limited. Factors include the presence of large and medium-sized powers with differing visions of a rules-based order, as well as African leaders’ increased selectivity in choosing long-term partners.
The U.S. and the EU are competing with China and Russia for access to African resources. A Trump administration would likely prioritize the U.S.’s immediate interests, with its focus on strategic competition rather than long-term collaboration with Africa potentially straining relations with the EU. This could lead to a second withdrawal from the Paris Agreement, exacerbating climate and environmental issues in Africa. Additionally, Trump’s praise for strongmen like Vladimir Putin and Viktor Orbán could undermine EU support for democracy in the region.
Harris’s approach would likely prioritize diplomatic efforts to address common challenges, particularly with African actors to foster closer collaboration between the EU and the continent on climate issues and specific topics such as critical raw materials. The major risk for the U.S. and the EU would be getting bogged down in Africa-related geopolitical dynamics.
The geopolitical interests of the U.S. and the EU, such as countering their competitors in Africa, should not be the only determining factor in shaping their African policy, as this could give the impression that African countries’ interests are secondary.
